With Apple stopping advertising on X, and another flood of people incoming on Mastodon, Bluesky, and Threads, it’s interesting to me to see where people land.

Previously, I thought Bluesky would eventually become the new Twitter, but they’re still in closed beta and taking their sweet time ramping up. Mastodon has a major perception problem that is going to limit their reach. Meanwhile, Threads suffers from not being available in the EU.

All of that said, I’m now of the opinion that, provided they are able to enter Europe, Threads will eventually win out. Being connected to Instagram is a huge advantage that’s hard to beat.

That doesn’t mean it’s my favorite. That honor goes to Mastodon, but I’ve had plenty of time to acclimate to its cultural and technical quirks, having joined it literally from Day 1 when it was announced on Hacker News in 2016. Newbies often find it confusing, and the general ethos sometimes comes across as lecturing and unhelpful. I like it because most of my people are there, but I’m not blind to its faults. Those of us who are there could do a better job welcoming newcomers.

Bluesky is probably my second favorite, but it still sometimes feels like I’ve wandered into a party where the cool kids are, and I’m not one of them. It’s pleasant enough, but a lot of that goes back to its invite-only status. Once they open the gates and give up control, it’s going to change. It also has the most annoying character limit.

Which leads us back to Threads. Backed by Meta, it’s unlikely to fail. It’s the one I like the least — too algorithmic, and you know the ads will show up eventually — but as someone wise once said, a social network should be social, and that requires people. There are folks I know who don’t do Mastodon or Bluesky, but they’re on Threads because they’re also on Instagram.

That might just be enough.